European E-commerce In 2026: Growth Moves East

In November last year, we covered how global e-commerce surpassed the $5 trillion mark, highlighting which players were driving growth worldwide. As the market matures, the focus is shifting to where growth is actually coming from and how it is evolving.

Growth Is Slower, But Not Standing Still

Global e-commerce is expected to reach around $7 trillion in 2026, yet the pace of growth has clearly cooled compared to the post-pandemic years. According to Tradebyte, Europe is now going through a period of internal rebalancing.

Western Europe continues to generate most online sales, but its role is changing. Growth is steadier, and margins are under pressure. At the same time, other regions are picking up speed.

The strongest shift can be seen in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). GMV in the region grew by 59% year on year, adding 2.6 percentage points to its overall market share.

The Nordics also recorded strong momentum, with 37% growth, supported by high levels of trust in e-commerce and reliable delivery networks.

Even so, the traditional powerhouses still matter. Germany, France, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Belgium together account for more than 73% of European GMV, underlining how concentrated the market remains.

Smaller Markets, Faster Growth

Some of the most striking numbers come from countries that were previously seen as secondary e-commerce markets.

• Portugal (+109%),
• Croatia (+74%)
• Lithuania (+45%)

all posted triple- or high double-digit growth.

These markets are expanding from a smaller base, but the direction is clear. Better logistics, easier online payments and growing consumer confidence are making them attractive entry points for brands looking beyond Western Europe.

For e-commerce teams, this changes how expansion is planned. New growth no longer comes only from fighting for visibility in saturated markets. In many cases, it comes from entering regions where competition is still developing.

Which Categories Are Performing Best

Not all segments are moving at the same pace. Underwear stands out as the fastest-growing category, with 44.5% year-on-year growth. Comfort, self-care and the influence of athleisure are all driving demand.

Beauty continues to perform well (+15.5%), helped by lower return rates and strong performance on social platforms. Sportswear (+9.9%) and fashion (+8.6%) remain solid, although buying decisions are becoming more considered and value-driven.

Across categories, shoppers are buying more intentionally and comparing options more closely than before.

Returns And The Rise Of “Dupes”

Returns remain one of the biggest structural challenges in e-commerce. In the UK, average return rates sit around 14%, while in Germany, Austria and Switzerland, they exceed 50%. As free returns are gradually reduced, brands are being forced to address the issue at its source.

At the same time, dupe culture has moved into the mainstream. Shoppers increasingly order several similar items, compare them at home and return what they do not want. This behaviour pushes up costs and puts pressure on margins, especially in mid-priced segments.

Clear sizing, accurate product information and strong imagery are becoming essential, not optional.

What E-commerce Leaders Should Take From This

Tradebyte’s data points to a clear conclusion: success in 2026 will not come from scale alone. Brands that perform best are those spreading risk across markets, investing in marketplaces and improving the quality of their product data.

Visibility is increasingly shaped by algorithms, not just ad spend. For e-commerce professionals, the priorities are practical:

• look beyond Western Europe for new growth

• prepare product data for marketplaces and AI-led discovery

• reduce avoidable returns through better content and fit guidance

• and manage e-commerce as one connected operation rather than separate channels