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After pandemic years when e-commerce grew at an average of 14% annually,stabilisationn is here. Growth dropped to 9.8% in 2025 and is expected to reach 8.6% in 2026. This isn’t a collapse – it’s a return to normal. The market is maturing.
The numbers are still impressive: from $4.94 trillion in 2025 to $5.36 trillion in 2026. Since 2017, when the market was worth $1.80 trillion, revenue has nearly tripled.
Marketplaces Dominate the Game
Platform versus independent store? This battle is already decided. Marketplaces like Amazon, Alibaba, and Shopee generate 87% of all e-commerce revenue in 2026. That’s nearly 9 out of every 10 dollars spent online.
Independent stores are dropping to 13%, and this trend continues.
For smaller brands, the message is clear: either marketplace or a very specific niche.
Source: ECDB
India and Indonesia on the Rise, Europe Stagnates
The biggest growth? India at 17.6% and Indonesia at 22%. Mexico adds 21.3%. Latin America as a region leads with 12.4%.
Europe is on the opposite side. Germany grows only 4.6%, France4.8%, and, Japan 4.5%. The GSA region (Germany, Switzerland, Austria) has the weakest growth at 4.6%, well below the global average.
Grocery is the New Champion
While electronics and hobby categories grow below 8%, grocery is exploding at 14.4% annually. For the first time in history, it will reach a 10.2% share of total e-commerce.
Meal kits are growing fastest at 18.7%. People want convenience and quick solutions. Alcohol is paradoxically the weakest in the grocery segment with 11% growth.
Interesting categories outside grocery: cleaning products (+21.4%) and pharmaceuticals (+19.2%).
Source: ECDB
Shein and Temu: End of the Hypergrowth Era
Years of triple-digit growth are over. Shein grew at an average of 74.5% annually over eight years (2016-2024), but will drop to 6.5% in 2026. Temu, after two years of explosive growth (+530.5% CAGR), will slow to 13.4%.
The reason? The end of the de-minimis rule and rising tariffs. Temu prices jumped from $2 to $14 as Trump ended the $800 import loophole, effectively killing the business model both platforms relied on. Consumers from both platforms are switching to other retailers – Aeropostale is growing 101%, Fabletics 114%, Carter’s 75% among former Shein/Temu customers.
Who Will Win in 2026
Amazon maintains dominance with GMV of $892 billion (+5.6%). Douyin/TikTok Shop is the fastest-growing giant – +59.4% to $105 billion. Pinduoduo grows 12.6%.
Source: ECDB
Surprise in the Chinese market: Taobao grows only 1.3%, Tmall 0.9%, and JD.com actually declines by 0.8%. Some of the largest Chinese platforms are losing momentum, while others like Pinduoduo and Douyin are growing at double-digit rates.
Walmart grows8.8%, and, Shopee 6.1%. Players who understood local needs are regaining positions.
