Poland’s Biggest E-commerce Cuts Forecast Despite Beating Earnings

Better Profits, Lower Expectations

Allegro earned 1.04 billion zlotys ($283.5 million) in adjusted EBITDA on its home Polish market. That’s more than the 978 million estimated by analysts in the company poll.

Despite this, the firm changed its GMV growth forecast (total transaction volume) for this year. Instead of the original 10%, it now expects growth of 9-9.5% in Poland. For the entire group, that means a drop from the expected 9-10% to 8-9%.

Why This Gap?

The company directly cites a weaker start to Black Weeks – the pre-Christmas period when e-shops traditionally do their biggest volumes. It’s a signal that could interest other European platforms too.

Allegro is the dominant player in Poland, and its numbers often predict broader trends in Central European e-commerce. If customers are shopping more cautiously right in the strongest season of the year, it could indicate overall cooling consumption in the region.

For e-commerce firms, this is a moment to reassess Q4 strategies – maybe more investment in promotions and discounts will be needed to maintain growth.