Why Southern Europe Will Hit 9.6% Growth vs Eastern Europe’s 5.4%

Similar Size, Different Revenues

Both regions have nearly identical populations – Eastern Europe counts 237.7 million inhabitants across 9 countries, and Southern Europe 238.1 million across 14 countries. The difference lies in online commerce revenues.

Southern Europe generates $557.9 per person annually, Eastern Europe only $434.7.

This gap explains why Eastern Europe still has room for faster overall growth with a CAGR of 9.0% versus 8.3% in Southern Europe for the 2020-2029 period.

East Grew Steadily, South Experienced Fluctuations

Between 2020 and 2024, Eastern Europe grew at 16.1% annually – stable and consistent. Southern Europe achieved only 4.2%, but with wild swings. In 2020, growth jumped to 70.1%, only to drop into negative territory in 2022 and 2024.

The reason? Southern Europe, including Spain, Italy and Portugal, was hit harder by Covid. Online commerce exploded suddenly where it barely existed before. Eastern Europe went through digital transformation more gradually.

Source: ECDB

After 2025, Roles Reverse

Online sales hold a 10.5% share of total retail in Southern Europe and 8.4% in Eastern Europe. Despite more advanced digitalisation, Southern Europe will accelerate again after 2025.

Eastern Europe hit a slowdown. Local markets like eMAG and Ozon, as well as AliExpress and Temu are building customer trust, but the region is hampered by the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Politics Decides

Southern Europe has a structural advantage – more EU members, which means better digital infrastructure and regulations supporting growth. Eastern Europe has a slightly younger population seeking bargains, but political instability limits potential.

Both regions have access to affordable broadband and smartphones. Both benefit from a combination of local (El Corte Inglés, Skroutz, Trendyol) and international players. The difference is that Southern Europe now has better conditions for further growth.